Why We’re Still Arguing Whether QE Worked

Why We’re Still Arguing Whether QE Worked

by adnane yako

How many times have you heard someone say that the Federal Reserve’s asset-purchase program known as quantitative easing was ineffective? At least, that’s what I keep hearing from the usual pundits arguing their case.

I have my own suspicions that monetary stimulus works well enough to thaw frozen credit markets, as it did amid the 2008 financial crisis. But if we want to stimulate the economy, then a fiscal, rather than monetary policy, is the way to go (nevermind that lots of pundits also claim that the federal government’s 2009 economic stimulus package didn’t work either).

But proving the efficacy of monetary or fiscal policy can’t easily be accomplished. This is one of the biggest challenges for economics, and why critics sometimes say that economists suffer from physics envy (I’m ignoring the Freudian implications here, but would note that the phenomenon has its own Wikipedia entry).

Testing the thesis

The problem with any line of economic policy argument is that there often isn’t much of a way to test any one thesis in order to prove or disprove the underlying claim. There is, for example, no laboratory where we can test side-by-side how QE performed for the U.S. economy versus an alternative scenario without QE. If we had that ability, we could get a better idea of whether QE, zero interest rates, fiscal stimulus or other programs work. Alternatively, we could run experiments about what would happen if there was no central bank or federal government economic intervention, letting the system cleanse itself of excesses.

If only. Instead, many pundits fall back on partial arguments without recognizing what the lack of a counterfactual means to their analysis. As we noted two years ago:

This flawed analytical paradigm has many manifestations, and not just in the investing world. They all rely on the same equation: If you do X, and there is no measurable change, X is therefore ineffective.

The problem with this non-result result is what would have occurred otherwise. Might “no change” be an improvement from what otherwise would have happened? This, or course, has consequences not just for economic-policy choices, but also for corporate decision-makers, investors and — not least of all — voters in the U.S. presidential election.

Policy experiments

There is some good news on this issue: the states, those so-called laboratories of democracy, have been engaging in a variety of different policy experiments. These are obviously not perfect scientifically rigorous experiments; it’s impossible in complex social and economic systems to create two identical test groups, with the variable to be verified versus a control group. However, the various states can give us some ideas about how successful one form of public policy may be versus its peers and the national averages.

We may never have a laboratory for national economic experiments such as QE, but at least we have an approximation at the state level. It’s something worth watching.

Post from Bloomberg

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  344. Hey this is kinda of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding know-how so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  345. Hello there! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it very hard to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about making my own but I’m not sure where to begin. Do you have any ideas or suggestions? Thanks

  346. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Appreciate it!

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  350. Today, I went to the beach front with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  353. Wow that was strange. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyways, just wanted to say wonderful blog!

  354. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four e-mails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thank you!

  355. I’m not sure exactly why but this site is loading very slow for me. Is anyone else having this problem or is it a issue on my end? I’ll check back later on and see if the problem still exists.

  356. Hi there! This is kind of off topic but I need some help from an established blog. Is it difficult to set up your own blog? I’m not very techincal but I can figure things out pretty quick. I’m thinking about setting up my own but I’m not sure where to start. Do you have any tips or suggestions? Thank you

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  361. Hey there! Do you know if they make any plugins to assist with Search Engine Optimization? I’m trying to get my blog to rank for some targeted keywords but I’m not seeing very good results. If you know of any please share. Cheers!

  362. Awesome blog! Do you have any hints for aspiring writers? I’m hoping to start my own site soon but I’m a little lost on everything. Would you recommend starting with a free platform like WordPress or go for a paid option? There are so many options out there that I’m totally overwhelmed .. Any tips? Cheers!

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  366. Today, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iphone and tested to see if it can survive a forty foot drop, just so she can be a youtube sensation. My apple ipad is now broken and she has 83 views. I know this is entirely off topic but I had to share it with someone!

  367. Hey this is kinda of off topic but I was wanting to know if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding expertise so I wanted to get guidance from someone with experience. Any help would be enormously appreciated!

  368. Hey there! I realize this is sort of off-topic but I needed to ask. Does managing a well-established blog such as yours take a lot of work? I’m brand new to running a blog but I do write in my diary daily. I’d like to start a blog so I can easily share my experience and feelings online. Please let me know if you have any kind of ideas or tips for new aspiring blog owners. Thankyou!

  369. Hi there would you mind stating which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a tough time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something completely unique. P.S Apologies for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  370. I’m really enjoying the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any browser compatibility problems? A small number of my blog audience have complained about my website not operating correctly in Explorer but looks great in Chrome. Do you have any tips to help fix this issue?

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  372. Hey there! I just wanted to ask if you ever have any trouble with hackers? My last blog (wordpress) was hacked and I ended up losing months of hard work due to no data backup. Do you have any solutions to stop hackers?

  373. Hiya! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when browsing from my iphone. I’m trying to find a template or plugin that might be able to correct this problem. If you have any recommendations, please share. Thank you!

  374. My programmer is trying to convince me to move to .net from PHP. I have always disliked the idea because of the expenses. But he’s tryiong none the less. I’ve been using Movable-type on various websites for about a year and am anxious about switching to another platform. I have heard good things about blogengine.net. Is there a way I can import all my wordpress posts into it? Any kind of help would be greatly appreciated!

  375. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the pictures on this blog loading? I’m trying to figure out if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feed-back would be greatly appreciated.

  376. I was wondering if you ever considered changing the structure of your site? Its very well written; I love what youve got to say. But maybe you could a little more in the way of content so people could connect with it better. Youve got an awful lot of text for only having 1 or 2 pictures. Maybe you could space it out better?

  377. Have you ever considered about including a little bit more than just your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental and all. Nevertheless just imagine if you added some great images or videos to give your posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and video clips, this blog could definitely be one of the greatest in its niche. Wonderful blog!

  378. Hiya, I am really glad I have found this info. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and internet stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good site with exciting content, that is what I need. Thanks for making this web site, and I will be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?

  379. Today, I went to the beach front with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!

  380. Hmm it appears like your blog ate my first comment (it was super long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I had written and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog writer but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any tips and hints for newbie blog writers? I’d definitely appreciate it.

  381. Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but, I’d like to shoot you an email. I’ve got some suggestions for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.

  382. I’m really loving the theme/design of your site. Do you ever run into any internet browser compatibility problems? A few of my blog audience have complained about my blog not working correctly in Explorer but looks great in Firefox. Do you have any ideas to help fix this issue?

  383. Hiya, I am really glad I have found this information. Today bloggers publish just about gossip and internet stuff and this is actually frustrating. A good site with exciting content, this is what I need. Thank you for making this web site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?

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  385. Hmm is anyone else encountering problems with the images on this blog loading? I’m trying to determine if its a problem on my end or if it’s the blog. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated.

  386. Hi there! Do you know if they make any plugins to safeguard against hackers? I’m kinda paranoid about losing everything I’ve worked hard on. Any suggestions?

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  389. Hey there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using? I’m planning to start my own blog in the near future but I’m having a hard time deciding between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S Sorry for being off-topic but I had to ask!

  390. Does your blog have a contact page? I’m having trouble locating it but, I’d like to send you an e-mail. I’ve got some ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing. Either way, great website and I look forward to seeing it expand over time.

  391. I do not know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everyone else experiencing problems with your blog. It appears like some of the text in your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This may be a issue with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Thanks

  392. Hello! I know this is kinda off topic but I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in exchanging links or maybe guest writing a blog article or vice-versa? My blog discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you’re interested feel free to send me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Awesome blog by the way!

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  394. Wow that was odd. I just wrote an really long comment but after I clicked submit my comment didn’t appear. Grrrr… well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyway, just wanted to say great blog!

  395. Good day! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  396. Hi! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting tired of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at alternatives for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.

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  400. Hello this is kind of of off topic but I was wondering if blogs use WYSIWYG editors or if you have to manually code with HTML. I’m starting a blog soon but have no coding skills so I wanted to get advice from someone with experience. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

  401. Howdy, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam remarks? If so how do you prevent it, any plugin or anything you can advise? I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any help is very much appreciated.

  402. Hi there would you mind sharing which blog platform you’re using? I’m looking to start my own blog soon but I’m having a difficult time making a decision between BlogEngine/Wordpress/B2evolution and Drupal. The reason I ask is because your design and style seems different then most blogs and I’m looking for something unique. P.S Sorry for getting off-topic but I had to ask!

  403. Heya are using WordPress for your blog platform? I’m new to the blog world but I’m trying to get started and create my own. Do you need any html coding expertise to make your own blog? Any help would be really appreciated!

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  427. Hmm it looks like your blog ate my first comment (it was extremely long) so I guess I’ll just sum it up what I submitted and say, I’m thoroughly enjoying your blog. I as well am an aspiring blog blogger but I’m still new to everything. Do you have any tips and hints for inexperienced blog writers? I’d certainly appreciate it.

  428. Hiya, I am really glad I’ve found this information. Nowadays bloggers publish only about gossip and net stuff and this is really irritating. A good website with exciting content, that is what I need. Thank you for making this web site, and I’ll be visiting again. Do you do newsletters by email?

  429. I don’t know whether it’s just me or if everyone else encountering problems with your website. It appears as if some of the text in your content are running off the screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This might be a issue with my browser because I’ve had this happen previously. Thank you

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  431. When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove people from that service? Thank you!

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  557. Today, I went to the beach with my kids. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear. She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is completely off topic but I had to tell someone!

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  563. I do not know whether it’s just me or if perhaps everybody else experiencing problems with your site. It looks like some of the written text on your content are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide feedback and let me know if this is happening to them as well? This could be a issue with my internet browser because I’ve had this happen before. Many thanks

  564. With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the internet without my authorization. Do you know any ways to help protect against content from being ripped off? I’d really appreciate it.

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